Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.662797 3.651398 5.062799 7.299265 1.090249e+01 1.676882e+01 27.722508
2025-03-02 1.559887 2.432953 3.914954 6.816499 1.292931e+01 2.690985e+01 68.502499
2025-03-09 1.113006 1.939549 3.577827 7.513993 1.855599e+01 5.678453e+01 286.204462
2025-03-16 0.816065 1.558065 3.236834 8.103727 2.636581e+01 1.299653e+02 2108.150105
2025-03-23 0.632394 1.311112 3.048506 9.125364 4.064581e+01 3.911256e+02 138175.118375
2025-03-30 0.497453 1.106403 2.843999 10.093721 6.301798e+01 1.557795e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.376007 0.877189 2.419756 9.749006 8.059140e+01 5.847658e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.285342 0.689731 2.007843 8.947660 9.444676e+01 2.598233e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.236735 0.599170 1.873457 9.603042 1.476731e+02 2.461079e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 0.206265 0.548938 1.860141 11.261094 2.903184e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.182843 0.510638 1.873788 13.513453 6.683534e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.158303 0.458004 1.784514 14.791682 1.370491e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.131197 0.388047 1.570725 14.275967 2.156456e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.107886 0.323535 1.341614 12.945948 2.798314e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.095324 0.294695 1.289861 14.294366 8.372388e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.084237 0.267296 1.226430 15.420580 3.074825e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.076033 0.248317 1.201510 17.531204 3.308557e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.068648 0.229917 1.166377 19.553816 5.016382e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.059921 0.202732 1.048485 18.634625 2.008942e+14 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.051939 0.176465 0.919994 16.759124 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.047404 0.164113 0.887140 18.105410 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.044501 0.158141 0.899692 21.714278 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.042108 0.153705 0.922520 26.803404 NaN NaN NaN